American Film Market 2025: An Industry in Flux
- Michael Hayes
- 14 minutes ago
- 5 min read
Last week’s American Film Market 2025 marked a significant moment for the global film and TV industry as the event returned to Los Angeles. Spiller Law was in attendance!
If there is one key takeaway among the many takeaways we’ll discuss below, it is that the move to the Fairmont Century Plaza Hotel was a resounding success. Even when the pouring rain drove everyone away from the spacious patio replete with tables, chairs and heatlamps, there was plenty of room inside to accommodate. Impromptu meetings took place in either the lobby or the Filmmaker’s Lounge two floors below. Both locations provided couches, tables and seating, but also food stations offering sandwiches, snacks, coffee and even espresso bars. Not to mention the two large water dispensers offering free water on the floor in between which saved us from collapsing from dehydration more than once during the week.
Market Realities
Despite the major success represented by the Fairmont, the market itself was a continuation of the new industry reality: buyers want more for less. One of the best summations of AFM 2025 was by FilmTake: “The market isn’t dying — it’s rebalancing. Buyers are cautious, sellers are adjusting, and packages that match economic reality still command attention.” The full article can be found here. It’s a must-read.
But make no mistake. “…packages that match the economic reality...” = MORE FOR LESS. The reason? Streaming has killed film values. Streaming is a model that makes money (in theory) for a platform, NOT for individual films. That’s not to say that a single film will not break out and find some level of appeal that justifies rolling the dice on a nice fat MG for one reason or another. But as a production model, filmmaking – independent or otherwise – is in a precarious position.
The latest shiny objects, as usual, distract from the underlying reality. Vertical dramas, AI tools, creator economy, etc. All worthy topics. All “opportunities.” But is it a “model” if there are only a few nascent successes? The answer is: no. No it is not.
Regarding the American Film Market 2025, ChatGPT has instructed me to say: "the take-away is clear: adaptivity, networked partnerships, and multilingual/global readiness will be key in the next chapter of content business.” But I don’t really know what any of that means.
Entertainment Industry Fundamentals
What I do know is that there IS a time-tested model that is arguably more relevant than ever, and independent filmmakers are making the same mistakes with regard to this model that they’ve made in every market I’ve ever been to over the past 20 years, which includes AFM, Cannes, EFM, Filmart, TIFF, Sundance and Ventana Sur.
The model is this: develop a script, attach a director, attach principal actors, finance the film. In that order.
This is the way it works. But independents aren't doing it. Some of them think they're doing it, but here’s the fine print:
That script must be a grand slam, so good that it cannot be ignored. It would win the Nicholl or Page or Blacklist, if entered.
The director must be either a director who has made a commercially or critically acclaimed feature or has made a short proof of concept that blows people’s minds. BLOWS. PEOPLE’S. MINDS. Not 20 mediocre short films that played in mediocre film festivals. And not a feature film that landed on the algo Slip-n-Slide of fill-in-the-blank platform (Prime, FandangoNow, Hoopla, Tubi, etc.) But a director that can be trusted to execute an exceptional script with an exceptional cast with millions of dollars at stake. How many of those directors are out there? Much much less than you think. And a filmmaker wandering the Fairmont hallways or pitching their project at the lobby bar just isn't likely to be one of them. It's not that they couldn't be. But an amazing pitch deck demonstrates only that you can use Photoshop. It does not in any way demonstrate that you can shoot a movie. Yet that is what you need to demonstrate, and unable or unwilling to demonstrate that, the industry proper will not give you the time of day, nor should it. Blow. People's. Minds. All doors will open.
The principal actors must be truly recognizable. Not the supporting up-and-comer who was in 10 eps next to Bryan Cranston, but Bryan Cranston! If you say the name of the actor, then need to say “they were in…”, you’re already lost. We know them or we don’t.
The package must be bulletproof. It must check all the boxes. It must be defensible and extremely professional, but most of all it must demonstrate that the producer/filmmaker understands the realities. Only then will it likely generate serious interest from the industry at large, including financiers.
Plenty of movies are made outside this model. In 20 years, I’ve never seen one of those that made back what they spent. I’ve also never seen a script bought at a market or a project find financing based on a pitch deck, no matter how slick or promising, without a strong package comprised of the elements mentioned above.
American Film Market 2025: the Future is Fundamental
AFM 2025 was, as FilmTake described, a “relief” to most veterans who attended. But the reailty can’t be ignored. TIFF is launching its inaugural film market next year. I know of TWO distributors who told me they are attending TIFF next year and skipping AFM. I suspect more will follow suit.
Time will tell what happens to AFM and to the industry overall. But we believe the fundamentals remain the same: exceptionalism wins out. Quality over all, but quality defined by smart careful reality-based choices: script, director, cast -> financing.
The future of the industry is truly likely in the hands of creators. But the fundamentals, at least for now, are still important. The bar is much higher than most people think it is. Although the business continues under the "pressures" of economic reality and must figure out how to make more with less, what makes it through is vetted, constructed and proven as rigorously as it ever was. Those who embrace the fundamentals will move forward. Those who don't will be destined to wander the market hallways forever.
Spiller Law is a San Francisco business, entertainment and estate planning law firm. We serve clients in the San Francisco Bay Area, Silicon Valley, Los Angeles, and California. Feel free to arrange a free consultation using the Schedule Appointment link on our website. For other questions, call our offices at 415-991-7298.
The information provided in this article is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal advice or opinion. Readers are advised to consult with their legal counsel for specific advice.
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